Duncan, BC ~ The Victoria Grizzlies open up their quest for the Rogers BCHL Cup tonight at 7:00 p.m. at the Cowichan Community Arena in Duncan against the Coastal Conference regular season champion Cowichan Valley Capitals.
The Grizzlies will hope that their strong finish to the season (5-3-1 in March) will bleed into the postseason as it kicks off this evening in Cowichan Valley. They will also hope that the negative trend continues for Cowichan Valley, who are coming into the postseason on the heels of a losing month of March (2-4-0). The Cowichan Community Arena, however, has been a haven for the Caps, who tied for the best record in the BCHL while playing at home this season at 23-3-1.
Cowichan is seen as the “favorite” coming into the series, but the underlying numbers of how these two match up tell us that this series should be about as tight as it gets. The Capitals own the season series 4-3 while outscoring the Grizzlies 35-30. Neither of which shows much separation. Almost all matchup numbers are in the same ballpark, with both teams sitting around 25% on the power play and 75% on the penalty kill against each other (Victoria actually holds the slight advantage). Five-on-five numbers are even more eye-catching, with Cowichan barely outscoring Victoria at 28-25 through seven regular-season games. This series has all the indications of likely coming down to the wire.
The main discrepancy that will likely be the storyline of the Coastal West Division Semi-Final is the difference in penalty time. Victoria was the most penalized team in the Coastal Conference with 957 PIM (236 times shorthanded), while Cowichan was at the bottom of the entire BCHL at just 497 (155 times shorthanded). Those numbers were echoed in the season series that saw Victoria shorthanded 29 times as opposed to the Capitals 18 times. The Grizzlies will need discipline to be front and centre of their focus against a Cowichan team that gets lots of calls due to their speed and stature.
Another major key for the Grizzlies will be their ability to defend the Capitals off the rush. The Caps send four forwards on pushes north, and they don’t shy away from the fact that they will give up their share of odd-man rushes due to the commitment of four skaters up ice. The Grizzlies must have their head on a swivel and backcheck as their life depends on it, or they will get caught out and leave a Mikus Vecvanags in the sight lines of a red and white firing range. The flip side of that is the opportunity to turn defense into offense. If the Grizzlies can force Cowichan turnovers and stand up at their blueline effectively, then they will have a chance to quickly go back the other way and create their own rush opportunities. Making Cowichan play extended shifts in their own zone is the only way you can cause them issues, as they are used to always having the puck and attacking constantly.
Can the Grizzlies use their size and physicality without a parade to the box? That question will be somewhat answered after this evening. Victoria is the biggest average team in the league at 6 feet 1 inch /187 lbs, being their average as opposed to Cowichan’s 5 feet 11 and 174 lb average. Victoria averaged just over 20 hits per game while Cowichan averaged just 9. The Grizz will have to try to physically chip away at the Caps so that they have the longevity factor as the series goes on.
The Capitals look for revenge against the Grizzlies, who beat them four games to two last season in the Coastal Conference Semi-Final.
Puck drop goes at 7:00 p.m. tonight. The game is free to listen to live with Tom Wilke on the Grizzlies Audio Streaming App on MixLR, presented by Canada Action, or to watch with a subscription to FloHockey, selecting the “Away” stream to hear the Grizzlies broadcast.
2025-26 Team Ranks (Regular Season)
| Victoria | Cowichan Valley | |
| Goals For Per Game | 3.80 (10th) | 4.48 (2nd) |
| Goals Against Per Game | 4.11 (15th) | 2.94 (3rd) |
| Power Play Percentage | 24.6% (T-7th) | 24.6% (T-7th) |
| Penalty Kill Percentage | 72.9% (17th) | 82.6% (2nd) |
| Penalty Minutes Per Game | 17.72 (2nd) | 9.20 (20th) |
| Home Record | 11-14-2 (T-13th) | 23-3-1 (T-1st) |
| Away Record | 15-11-1 (T-7th) | 15-10-2 (6th) |
| Playoff Record Last Five Post-Seasons | 16-25 (.390) | 7-9 (.518) |
